Maine Senate Race Remains Deadlocked Despite Democratic Challenger Switch, New Survey Indicates

Senator Susan Collins, who has represented Maine in the Senate since 1997 and secured her fifth term in 2020 by nearly nine percentage points, finds herself in a highly competitive re-election battle. A recent statewide survey indicates that the contest remains exceptionally tight, even after a change in the Democratic challenger. More than half of Maine voters, 55%, express concern that Senator Collins' voting record too frequently aligns with former President Donald Trump. Conversely, 43% of voters are worried that her opponent, David Jackson, is too closely associated with the democratic socialist movement. Among independent voters, the concern about Collins' proximity to Trump is 14 points higher than the worry about Jackson's ties to democratic socialists.

Shifting Dynamics in the Race

David Jackson, a fifth-generation logger from Allagash and former president of the Maine Senate, became the Democratic nominee in July, replacing Graham Platner, who withdrew following an assault allegation. Jackson's entry into the race appears to have refocused the contest, making it more of a referendum on Senator Collins. The survey shows that 61% of Jackson's supporters primarily state their vote is against Collins, a notable increase from 48% when Platner was the opponent. Only 36% currently say they are voting for Jackson, a decrease from Platner's 50%.

For Senator Collins, the dynamic is equally pronounced: 71% of her supporters report voting mainly for her, up from 53% in June. Just 27% indicate they are voting against Jackson, a decrease from 45% when Platner was the challenger.

Despite this significant shift in the Democratic ticket, the survey highlights that the Maine Senate race remains competitive. Jackson currently leads Collins by two percentage points, 48% to 46%, a margin well within the survey's sampling error. This marks a change from June, when Collins held a three-point lead over Platner. Since then, Collins' support has decreased by four points, while Jackson performs one point better than Platner did. Among highly committed voters, those who rate their certainty to vote as a "10 out of 10," Jackson's advantage expands to four points (50% to 46%).

However, Collins' backers are more resolute in their choice, with an eight-point margin indicating their decision is locked in. Approximately one in five of Jackson's supporters suggest they might reconsider their vote before election day.

Demographics and Support Bases

Strong partisan loyalty is evident, with roughly nine out of ten Democrats and Republicans supporting their respective candidates. Independents, however, show a narrow preference for Jackson.

Jackson garners significant support from liberals, women with a college degree, and individuals under the age of 35. He also leads among men under 45 and those residing in union households. Overall, women favor Jackson by four points, while men are evenly split between the two candidates.

Senator Collins' core support comes from conservatives, White evangelical Christians, men aged 45 and above, and voters without a college degree. She also maintains an advantage among rural and married voters.

Compared to Platner's performance in June, Jackson generally maintains support among key demographics such as women, college-educated voters, and suburban residents. He has made notable gains among voters under 45, improving by 12 points relative to Platner's standing. Concurrently, Collins' previous ten-point lead among men has dissipated.

Nearly all self-identified MAGA Republicans support Senator Collins, though this figure drops to three-quarters among non-MAGA Republicans, with almost one in five non-MAGA Republicans backing Jackson. For Jackson, nearly all supporters of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) movement are behind him, but this support decreases to two-thirds among non-DSA Democrats and independents.

The race remains close, and I’d never count Collins out, but you have to give a slight edge to the Democrats here.

Broader Political Context and Key Issues

Senator Collins is the sole Republican senator seeking re-election this year from a state that former President Trump lost in 2024; former Vice President Kamala Harris secured Maine by seven points. Trump's personal favorability rating in the state is significantly negative, underwater by 20 points (39% favorable versus 59% unfavorable). Democrats view this Maine Senate seat as crucial for their aspirations to gain control of the Senate.

Inflation stands as the paramount concern in Maine, with one-third of voters identifying it as the most critical factor influencing their Senate vote. Other significant priorities include immigration and border security, healthcare, and the nation's political divisions. A portion of Jackson's lead is attributed to strong support from the 40% of voters who report falling behind financially, among whom he leads by 29 points.

Candidate and Party Perceptions

Senator Collins' unfavorable ratings have become more pronounced, now at a net negative of ten points (44% favorable vs. 54% unfavorable), a decline from June when her ratings were underwater by three points (47% vs. 50%). Jackson's favorability rating is slightly positive, at a net one point (47% favorable vs. 46% unfavorable). Both Senate candidates are viewed more positively than their respective political parties.

Voters who hold negative opinions of both candidates show a preference for Jackson by three points. Similarly, those who view both major parties unfavorably back Jackson by a significant 22-point margin.

Ratings for both MAGA and DSA are approximately equally negative, with MAGA at minus 19 points and DSA at minus 21. However, there is greater intensity in opinions of MAGA, as 50% express a "strongly" unfavorable view compared to 38% for DSA.

Democrats report being significantly more interested in the election (D+18) and more motivated to vote (D+9) than Republicans. However, the proportion of both groups certain to cast a ballot in November is nearly equal (D+3).

The Gubernatorial Contest

In the gubernatorial race, Democrat Hannah Pingree maintains an eleven-point lead over Republican Bobby Charles, while third-party candidate Rick Bennett garners nine percent support. Despite these figures, nearly three out of ten voters indicate their preference in this race could still shift.

Party loyalty is a substantial factor in Pingree's lead; 92% of Democrats support her, compared to 83% of Republicans backing Charles. The largest segment of independent voters also favors Pingree.

Pingree's personal favorability rating is a net positive of 15 points (52% favorable vs. 37% unfavorable). Charles' rating is underwater by six points (36% vs. 42%), with 23% of voters unfamiliar with him. Bennett is even less recognized, with 52% unable to provide a rating.